Syria at a Crossroads: After Assad, Who Is Designing Syria?

Can the "Damascus Spring" Really Come?

In December 2024, the world witnessed an unbelievable scene. The Assad dynasty, which had ruled Syria with an iron fist for 54 years, crumbled in barely ten days before a rebel offensive. Bashar al-Assad boarded a plane to Russia, and cheers erupted in Damascus's Umayyad Square. Fifteen months later today, Syria is confronting a reality far more complex than "liberation."

The Power Landscape After Assad

The current effective ruling force in Syria is the transitional government led by HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), an organization with roots in Islamist militancy. Leader Ahmad al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammed al-Julani) is trying to erase his past al-Qaeda connections and promises the international community a "moderate and inclusive Syria." However, in the northeast, the Kurdish autonomous forces SDF hold their territory, and in parts of the south, pro-Turkish rebels guard their domains. Syria is still not one.

The calculations of the international community vary widely. Turkey prioritizes curbing Kurdish forces and maintains military influence in the north. Gulf states — particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE — are rapidly restoring diplomatic channels with billions of dollars in reconstruction contracts on the horizon. Europe weighs conditional support tied to refugee return issues, while the US maintains a certain troop presence out of concern over a potential IS resurgence.

Reconstruction: Another War by Another Name

The World Bank estimates Syria's reconstruction costs at a minimum of $400 billion. Aleppo's old city, the residential districts of Homs, the Ghouta areas on the outskirts of Damascus — the scars left by civil war are so extensive it is hard to know where to begin. The problem is that the political future of Syria changes depending on the direction from which money flows. If Gulf capital leads, a pro-Sunni Islamic state model prevails; if the West leads, secular democratic conditions take priority. Reconstruction funding is not mere economic aid — it is the blueprint for Syria's future.

Meanwhile, among the approximately 6 million overseas refugees, those who have actually chosen to return remain a minority. Distrust about safety, property and housing issues, uncertain guarantees for religious and ethnic minorities — all of these stand as barriers before the desire to "go home."

Films and Dramas About the Middle East

Syria's tragedy has left deep marks on the screen as well. "For Sama" (2019), which won the Academy Documentary Award, takes the form of a video letter from a female doctor to her daughter during the siege of Aleppo, quietly depicting daily life and motherhood in the middle of war. How abstract today's reconstruction discussions are — this documentary challenges us with very concrete faces.

Denis Villeneuve's "Incendies" is set not in Syria but against the Lebanese civil war backdrop, yet it superbly captures the tragic structure of sectarian conflict and inherited violence in the Middle East. Though fiction, it is one of the works that most honestly captures the texture of reality. "The Square", covering the Egyptian revolution, shows how arduous the process of "after dictatorship" can be, eerily mirroring Syria's present.

History Is Not Yet Over

Damascus is one of the oldest cities in human history. Thousands of years of empires and civilizations have passed through this city. Considering that long history, today's turmoil will someday be recorded as merely one chapter. But whether that chapter will be recorded as "reconstruction and reconciliation" or "yet another division" depends on the choices being made right now. We hope, even from afar, that the Syrian people may finally write their own story.